Where S&P 500 could go
Not part of DCI, shown for comparison: the same simulation, run on S&P 500's real daily moves, picked at random, one after the other.
- S&P 500 so far
- Median (P50)
- P10 – P90
- Sample paths
Past performance is not indicative of future results. These paths only replay S&P 500's past daily moves; they are not a forecast or a promise of any return.
In 5 years
| Year | P10 | P50 | P90 | P50 a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2027 | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 2028 | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 2029 | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 2030 | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 2031 | — | — | — | — |
How it works
Yahoo Finance daily closes of the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) on trading days. A price index: dividends are not included. Since 31 Oct 2022 that gives 1,003 daily moves, about 251 a year. A path starts at today's price, picks one of those moves at random, applies it, and repeats at the same pace until the horizon. 2,000 paths are drawn; P10, P50 and P90 are the prices that 10%, 50% and 90% of them stay below on each day.
Each move is drawn on its own, so streaks and changes of regime are not modelled. A short history means a rough picture. This is past behaviour replayed, not a forecast: past performance is not indicative of future results, and S&P 500 can lose value.